A Probability Carl Sagan
and Frank Drake Didn't Mention

On "Who would find who first?"

Say we have two or more technological societies adrift in space, each looking for signs of life on other worlds; one of them with its primitive 150 year-old technology, the others possessing well-refined technology possibly 500-1000 years old or more. (or say it was only 250)

Which of them stands the better chance of finding the other one first; the techno-neophyte or the older, more mature techno-advanced civilization?



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